7% In One Week. Is Your Export Deal Still Profitable? 5 Checks Before You Ship.

7% in one week.

That was the increase in Shanghai–New York container spot rates in the week to 17 September, according to Drewry. Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 5%. Yet, during the same week, Shanghai–Rotterdam rates fell 9%.

The overall Drewry World Container Index moved only 1%.

That tells exporters something important: the economics of international trade don't move uniformly. They change by route, product, market and transaction. Drewry World Container Index

And freight is only one variable.

Tariffs are firmly back on the trade agenda. Exchange rates move. Shipping routes change. Buyers renegotiate quantities and delivery dates. Documentation gets amended. Payment can take longer than expected.

The result?

The deal you priced may not be the deal you eventually ship.

None of these risks is particularly new. What matters is whether you identify the changes before they start eating into the margin you originally expected.

Before your next shipment leaves, here are five things worth rechecking.

1. Has the tariff changed — or does a different tariff apply?

Tariffs are currently one of the most visible moving parts in global trade.

The WTO and IMF now maintain a dedicated Tariff Tracker monitoring changes in effectively applied import duties by trading partner, product classification and implementation date. The latest dataset was updated on 9 September 2026. WTO–IMF Tariff Tracker

For exporters, the important point is that there isn't simply one tariff for selling into a particular country.

The rate applicable to your transaction can depend on your product's HS classification, its origin, the destination market, preferential trade agreements and whether you satisfy the relevant rules of origin.

And rates can change.

That makes the tariff used when preparing a quotation something worth checking again before the transaction is executed — particularly if several weeks or months have passed.

Verify the HS classification. Confirm origin. Check whether preferential treatment applies. And make sure the duty incorporated into your landed-cost calculation is still the duty that will actually apply when the goods arrive.

2. Has the cost of getting the goods there changed?

The latest freight data demonstrates just how differently individual routes can behave.

On 17 September, Drewry reported Shanghai–New York rates rising 7% to US$10,394 per 40-foot container, while Shanghai–Los Angeles increased 5% to US$7,712.

Meanwhile, Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 9% to US$3,626.

For an exporter, the lesson isn't that freight is necessarily becoming more expensive.

It's that the freight assumption you used when you priced the deal may no longer be accurate.

The WTO's latest Goods Trade Barometer reinforces that mixed picture. Global merchandise trade remains above trend, with the overall index at 102.0 and export orders at 103.5, but its container-shipping component has slipped slightly below trend to 99.6. WTO Goods Trade Barometer, September 2026

Before shipping, recheck the actual route, carrier, freight rate, surcharges, capacity and expected transit time.

A freight quotation is an input into the economics of a trade — not a permanent fact.

3. Who carries the cost when something changes?

A 7% increase in freight doesn't necessarily mean a 7% increase in your costs.

That depends on the terms of the deal.

The ICC's 11 Incoterms® 2020 rules clarify the allocation of costs, risks and obligations between buyer and seller. ICC Incoterms® 2020

That distinction becomes particularly important when conditions change.

A seller trading FCA has very different transport obligations from one selling DAP or DDP. Under some Incoterms®, the seller may arrange and pay for carriage even though risk transfers to the buyer much earlier in the journey.

So don't simply check that an Incoterm appears on the invoice.

Ask a more commercially useful question:

Does the agreed Incoterm still produce the allocation of cost, responsibility and risk that we expected when we priced the deal?

If freight, insurance, routing or delivery requirements have changed, understanding whose cost it is matters.

4. Has the deal changed while the documentation stayed the same?

International transactions evolve.

The customer changes the quantity. The shipment date moves. A different port is selected. The price is renegotiated. The freight arrangement changes. Product descriptions are refined.

Individually, these changes can seem minor.

Problems begin when the commercial transaction changes but the information flowing through it doesn't.

The purchase order says one thing. The commercial invoice says another. The packing list contains an old quantity. The forwarder has different shipping instructions. Customs documentation is prepared using information entered weeks earlier.

The potential cost of inefficient trade processes is significant. The WTO estimates that full implementation of its Trade Facilitation Agreement could reduce average trade costs by 14.3%, while potentially cutting average export time by as much as 91%. WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement

Before the shipment moves, therefore, confirm that everyone involved is working from the final version of the same transaction.

One deal. One agreed set of data.

5. Does the deal still produce the margin — and cash — you expected?

Finally, rerun the economics.

Not just revenue minus product cost.

Look again at:

• tariffs and customs costs;

• freight, insurance and handling;

• currency exposure;

• financing and payment charges; and

• when you realistically expect to receive the money.

Small changes can accumulate.

A higher freight charge might be manageable. So might a modest FX movement. A few additional handling charges might not matter much either.

But combine them and the transaction you are shipping may have a materially different margin from the one somebody approved several weeks earlier.

Cash timing matters too.

The Asian Development Bank estimates that unmet global demand for trade finance remains at US$2.5 trillion, equivalent to around 10% of global trade. Some 80% of banks surveyed expect demand for trade finance to increase as businesses diversify markets and reorganise supply chains. ADB Global Trade Finance Gap Survey

A profitable trade that pays in 30 days is economically different from one where your cash is tied up for 120 days.

So don't stop at asking whether the transaction is profitable.

Ask when it becomes profitable in cash.

The deal you quoted isn't necessarily the deal you're shipping

Tariffs change. Freight moves. Currencies fluctuate. Delivery arrangements evolve. Documents get amended. Payment dates slip.

That doesn't mean international trade needs to become more complicated.

It means a transaction needs to be actively managed between the moment a quotation is created and the moment the goods move — and ultimately until payment is received.

Before your next shipment leaves, take one final look at the entire transaction and ask:

If we were pricing this deal today, knowing everything we know now, would we still do it on the same terms?

Because the cheapest time to discover that the economics of your export deal have changed is before the goods leave the warehouse.