The WTO Says Trade Is Growing. Your Margins May Not. 5 Checks Before Your Next Deal.
Global trade is not slowing down. But it is becoming harder to navigate.
The WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer reached 102.0, above its long-term baseline of 100, while the export orders index climbed to 103.5. Both indicate continued growth in global merchandise trade.
But beneath those headline numbers, the trading environment is becoming more complicated.
The WTO’s newly published World Trade Report 2026 says around 72% of global merchandise trade now takes place under standard Most-Favoured-Nation tariff terms, down from about 80% in 2024 as tariffs, preferential agreements and other trade measures reshape global commerce.
For businesses trading internationally, that matters.
The price that worked six months ago may not work today. A preferential tariff you expected may not apply. Freight may move. New regulations may change your landed cost. And a seemingly straightforward order can quickly become unprofitable if responsibilities for customs, transport or payment have not been clearly agreed.
Before you quote, ship or commit to your next international transaction, make these five checks.
1. Check the tariff — and whether you actually qualify for it
Start with the product itself.
Every internationally traded product has a tariff classification. That classification can determine the import duty, quotas, licences and restrictions that apply.
The European Commission's Access2Markets tariff guidance recommends identifying the appropriate product code before determining the applicable tariff.
But finding the tariff is only half the job.
If you expect preferential treatment under a free trade agreement, you also need to confirm that the product meets the relevant rules of origin.
That could depend on:
where the raw materials originated;
where manufacturing or processing took place;
whether the product underwent sufficient transformation; and
whether you can provide the required evidence of origin.
The EU's rules-of-origin guidance makes clear that products which fail the applicable origin requirements can revert to the normal customs duty rate.
If your margin assumes a zero or reduced tariff, don't assume you qualify.
Prove it before you quote.
2. Check whether the rules have changed
Tariffs are only one part of the compliance equation.
Export controls, environmental rules, product standards, sanctions, licensing requirements and trade remedies can all affect whether you can complete a transaction — and what it will cost.
And these rules move.
On 14 September 2026, for example, the European Commission updated the EU's dual-use export-control list, adding controls covering technologies including advanced computing integrated circuits, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and certain advanced manufacturing technologies. The Commission's announcement is a timely reminder that last year's compliance checklist may not be sufficient for today's transaction.
The same applies to environmental regulation.
The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026. EU importers bringing in more than 50 tonnes of covered CBAM goods must generally become authorised CBAM declarants and account for the embedded emissions associated with those imports, according to the European Commission's CBAM guidance.
The broader lesson is straightforward:
Check the regulatory environment for the product, destination and customer before accepting the order.
A transaction can be commercially attractive and still become uneconomic once regulatory costs are added.
3. Check exactly who is paying for what
“We'll organise the shipping” is not enough.
There are 11 Incoterms® 2020 rules, and each allocates transportation obligations, costs and risks differently between buyer and seller. The International Chamber of Commerce defines the internationally recognised rules governing these responsibilities.
Consider the difference between selling DDP and FCA.
Under Delivered Duty Paid, the seller assumes an extensive level of responsibility, including delivery to the named destination, import clearance and applicable duties and taxes.
Under Free Carrier, responsibility transfers much earlier.
That can dramatically change the economics of a transaction.
Before agreeing the deal, both parties should know:
which Incoterm applies;
the named place or port;
who pays freight and insurance;
who handles export and import clearance; and
exactly when risk transfers from seller to buyer.
Otherwise, both parties can agree on the product price while holding completely different assumptions about the actual cost of the transaction.
4. Check the real landed cost — particularly freight
Transportation costs should never be treated as an afterthought.
More than 80% of international merchandise trade by volume moves by sea, according to UN Trade and Development.
But shipping costs can move quickly.
UNCTAD reported that the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index averaged 2,496 points in 2024 — 149% higher than in 2023 — as Red Sea disruption, longer shipping routes and geopolitical risk affected global freight markets. Its Review of Maritime Transport illustrates just how quickly transportation assumptions can change.
For exporters quoting ahead of shipment, that volatility matters.
A €50,000 order carrying a €10,000 gross margin can quickly look very different if freight, insurance, customs charges or destination costs increase unexpectedly.
So don't calculate profitability using product cost plus an estimated freight number.
Calculate the landed cost of the transaction and understand which costs remain variable.
That includes duties, taxes, freight, insurance, handling, documentation, regulatory charges and other destination costs.
Your margin needs to survive the journey as well as the sale.
5. Check how — and when — you will actually get paid
A transaction is not complete when the goods leave your warehouse.
It is complete when the money arrives.
The Asian Development Bank estimates that the global trade-finance gap remained around $2.5 trillion in 2025, equivalent to roughly 10% of global trade, with SMEs particularly affected by limited access to finance. Its latest Trade Finance Gaps, Growth and Jobs Survey demonstrates why payment terms are not simply an administrative detail.
Before confirming an international order, agree:
the payment currency;
when payment is due;
the payment mechanism;
which documents trigger payment; and
what happens if delivery or documents are disputed.
Then consider the cash-flow impact.
If you pay suppliers today, ship in 30 days and receive customer payment 60 days after delivery, you may be financing that transaction for three months or more.
Multiply that across ten international orders and a successful sales quarter can create a significant working-capital problem.
Better international trade starts before the shipment
None of these five checks is particularly complicated in isolation.
The difficulty is ensuring that they happen before the transaction is agreed — and that the product, price, tariffs, responsibilities, documents, transport costs and payment terms remain connected as the transaction progresses.
There is real economic value in getting this right.
The WTO estimates that full implementation of trade-facilitation measures can reduce trade costs by an average of 14.3%, according to its Trade Facilitation Agreement analysis.
That principle applies at the individual transaction level too.
Better information. Fewer assumptions. Clearer responsibilities. Better documentation.
That is also the problem iTradeDigital is designed to address.
Instead of managing product information in one system, Incoterms in an email, freight costs in a spreadsheet, documents in shared folders and payment terms somewhere else, buyers and sellers can create, negotiate, document and manage the trade through one guided digital workflow.
Because the worst time to discover that the economics of an international transaction don't work is when your goods are already on the water.
Check the deal before you make the deal.
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