Crude Is Flowing Again—But Refined-Fuel Flows Through Hormuz Are Still Down 81%

Crude-oil exports from the Gulf have largely returned to their pre-war level. That is positive news—but don’t be fooled. International trade is not out of troubled waters yet.

According to data from trade-intelligence provider Kpler, at least 16.5 million barrels of crude oil per day left the region in September, equivalent to the pre-war average excluding Iran. That is 10.5 million barrels per day more than the average recorded in March, during the opening weeks of the conflict.

The recovery has required considerable adaptation. Approximately 40% of the region’s crude is now transported without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 17% before the war, using pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. More than 70% of the crude that passed through Hormuz in August was transferred to another tanker outside the Strait—a practice that was almost nonexistent before the conflict.

The oil is moving again, but through a system that is more complex, expensive and exposed to disruption.

More importantly for international trade, the recovery is extraordinarily uneven.

Kpler recorded a seven-day average of only 677,000 barrels per day of refined products moving through Hormuz at the end of September. Before the conflict, the corresponding figure was approximately 3.6 million barrels per day.

Refined-product flows therefore remain approximately 81% below their pre-war level, even as regional crude exports recover. These figures were reported by The Guardian.

Why should a business importing machinery, exporting food or sourcing industrial components care about refined-fuel flows through a distant shipping channel?

Because crude oil is only the raw material. Refined fuels are what keep physical trade operating.

Hormuz supplies more than crude oil

The Strait of Hormuz is frequently described as an oil chokepoint, but that understates its wider commercial importance.

Before the conflict, the Strait carried approximately 19% of global seaborne trade in refined oil products. It also handled 13% of seaborne chemicals trade, including fertilisers, and substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas and industrial raw materials, according to UN Trade and Development.

These products are woven throughout international supply chains:

• Diesel powers road freight, agricultural equipment and much of the machinery used in ports and warehouses.

• Marine fuels keep cargo vessels moving.

• Jet fuel supports time-sensitive airfreight.

• Petroleum products are essential inputs for chemicals, plastics, packaging and manufacturing.

When refined-fuel supplies fall, the effect does not remain within the energy market. It reaches the businesses producing, transporting and selling physical goods.

The International Energy Agency forecast that global refinery throughput would fall by 4.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, with infrastructure damage, export restrictions and reduced feedstock availability all constraining production. The IEA also reported that jet-fuel prices nearly tripled following the initial loss of Middle Eastern exports and identified aviation and petrochemicals among the sectors most affected.

More crude leaving the Gulf does not immediately repair damaged refineries, restore inventories or make sufficient diesel and jet fuel available in the right markets.

China is adding to the pressure

The refined-fuel shortage has been compounded by China’s decision to suspend most October exports of oil products outside Hong Kong and Macau.

China is the world’s largest refining hub and an important supplier of petrol, diesel and jet fuel to Asian markets. Its withdrawal from the wider export market limits the ability of other countries to compensate for constrained Gulf supplies.

According to Reuters, Singapore imported 1.77 million tonnes of Chinese petrol during the first nine months of 2026—62% less than during the whole of 2025. Petrol inventories in the Asian trading hub have fallen to a five-year low. Expectations of reduced Chinese supply also pushed Asian petrol-refining margins above $50 per barrel over Brent crude.

China’s decision affects more than its direct customers. When a major supplier withdraws from the market, buyers compete for fuel from alternative sources.

Established trade flows change, shipping distances increase and prices rise more widely.

Higher fuel costs travel through the supply chain

Fuel is an input into almost every physical transaction. A shortage can therefore affect international trade at several points:

• Producing the goods

• Transporting them to the port

• Operating terminals and warehouses

• Moving them by sea or air

• Completing the final delivery

The consequences are already visible.

The World Bank forecasts that the global fertiliser price index will rise by more than 30% in 2026, while urea prices are projected to increase by almost 60%. It attributes much of this pressure to higher energy costs, reduced production and shipping disruption connected with the Strait of Hormuz. Higher fertiliser costs ultimately affect agricultural production, food prices and the commercial viability of agricultural exports. World Bank analysis also notes that sulphur prices have doubled since January.

The physical effect on Gulf container trade has been equally dramatic. Jebel Ali, the region’s largest container port, handled only 374,000 twenty-foot-equivalent units during the second quarter of 2026, compared with 3.8 million a year earlier—a 90.1% decline. DP World’s total global container throughput fell by 22% on a like-for-like basis during the first half; excluding Jebel Ali, it increased by 3.6%. Those figures show how heavily the disruption was concentrated around Gulf trade. Seatrade Maritime reported the figures from DP World’s results.

What happens inside an individual transaction?

Suppose a seller and buyer agreed a transaction before the latest fuel disruption. Its price, delivery date, shipping route, insurance coverage and payment schedule were based on conditions at that time.

If fuel scarcity raises transport costs or reduces available capacity, a carrier may add a surcharge, change the route or revise the departure date. The assumptions underlying the transaction no longer hold.

The parties must establish who bears the additional cost. The answer may depend on the contract, selected Incoterm and point at which responsibility transfers from seller to buyer.

A route change can require amendments to shipping instructions, insurance documents and transport records. A delayed departure can affect delivery commitments and payment milestones. If documents presented for payment no longer correspond with the terms originally agreed, payment may also be delayed.

The disruption has moved from the fuel market into the commercial transaction.

Digital trade must accommodate change

Technology cannot produce more diesel, reopen a shipping route or remove geopolitical risk. It can help businesses manage the consequences.

When conditions change, buyers, sellers and service providers need a shared understanding of the current commercial terms, documentation, delivery obligations, approvals and payment status. Agreed changes must become part of the transaction record rather than remaining scattered across email threads, spreadsheets and incompatible systems.

At iTradeDigital, we are building a platform that connects the parties, negotiated terms, trade documents, delivery milestones and payments involved in cross-border commerce.

The recovery in crude exports is welcome. But the 81% shortfall in refined-product flows shows why it should not be mistaken for a return to normal.

The crude may be moving again. The fuels that power international trade—and many of the businesses dependent upon them—remain under considerable pressure.